Rupee extends losses, AUDUSD lower

Tuesday,   16-Apr-2019   12:23 PM (IST)

The Indian rupee is trading lower at 69.63/64 levels (12:13 pm) in the afternoon deals hurt by wider-than-expected trade deficit in March and broad strength in the greenback. However, exporters’ dollar sales and losses in crude will likely limit further losses. So far rupee traded in the range of 69.48-69.63 levels. Data released yesterday showed, India’s trade deficit widened to $10.9 billion last month from a one-and-a-half year low of $9.6 billion in February. Indian financial markets will remain close tomorrow on the occasion of Mahavir Jayanti. Benchmark indices hit fresh record highs today. At 12:06 PM, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading at 39,238 up 332 points, while the broader Nifty50 was at 11,781, up 91 points. As per the technical indicators, range for USDINR pair for the remaining part of the day may be 69.25-69.85 levels. Rupee has an immediate support at 69.62 levels. A breach of the same may see rupee at 69.72 followed by 69.86 and 69.93 levels. On the positive side rupee is likely to face resistance at 69.50 levels and if it is able to break the same then it may gain up to 69.40 levels followed by 69.31 and 69.23 levels. In the forward segment 1mth, 3mth and 6mth annualized premia are currently trading at 4.76%, 4.47% and 4.23% respectively.

Forex today witnessed a quiet Asian affair amid a cautious risk tone, with most majors sticking to thin trading ranges while the US dollar attempted a tepid bounce broadly. The Asian stock markets traded mixed, as markets remained unnerved ahead of the key Euro zone and Chinese macro releases. Oil prices also traded on the back foot heading into the US weekly supply data release. Meanwhile, gold traded modestly flat near 1285, with the bias leaning towards the downside. Amongst the G10 currencies, the AUD/USD pair was the worst performer, as the Aussie dollar incurred steep losses following the release of the RBA April meeting’s minutes that was widely read as dovish. Its OZ neighbor, the Kiwi, enjoyed some good two-way businesses, having tripped to near 0.6740 region on dovish remarks from the RBNZ Governor Orr before recovering to the familiar ranges around 0.6765 levels. The USD/JPY pair was stuck in 20-pips trading range near the 112 handle, with the JPY bulls unfazed by the BOJ Governor Kuroda’s willingness to ease the monetary policy further, if required. Both the Euro and the GBP remained confined within its recent trading ranges while the Loonie recovered losses and traded below the 1.34 handle.