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Rupee ended weaker, Dollar higher vs. major currencies

Monday,   18-Sep-2023   04:20 PM (IST)

The Indian rupee ended the session weaker at 83.2675/2775 levels compared to its opening at 83.09/10 levels after touching the low of 83.2725/2825 levels despite likely help from the Reserve Bank of India, as rising crude oil prices pushed up dollar demand. Rupee traded in the range of 83.09-83.2725 levels today. Possible dollar sales from the RBI helped the local unit stay above lifetime lows. The rupee had fallen to a record low of 83.29 in October last year. Asian currencies were mostly weaker with the offshore Chinese Yuan leading losses. Indian government bond yields were down on optimism over inclusion of Indian bonds in global indices. India's blue-chip stock indexes eased from record highs with the Sensex ending a 11-session winning streak, as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The benchmark Nifty 50 fell 0.3% to 20,133.3 points, while the S&P BSE Sensex slipped 0.4% to 67,596.8 points. In the forward segment 1mth, 3mth and 6mth annualized premia ended the day at 1.55%, 1.52% and 1.57% respectively.

The U.S. dollar hovered near a six-month high on Monday as traders looked ahead to interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan this week. The euro was roughly flat against the dollar at $1.0658. Japan's yen was little changed at 147.69 to the dollar, with the country's traders out for a public holiday. That put the dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major peers including the euro and the yen, up marginally at 105.32. The index rose for its ninth straight week last week as the U.S. economy continued to show strength. It touched 104.53 on Thursday, its highest since the middle of March. Traders on Monday were looking towards a handful of central bank decisions later in the week which could shake up the currency market. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold in the 5.25% to 5.5% range on Wednesday. Traders then see the Bank of England raising rates by 25 basis points to 5.5% on Thursday, in what could be its final hike. They broadly expect the Bank of Japan to leave rates on hold at -0.1% on Friday, but will watch closely for hints about the policy outlook after Governor Kazuo Ueda stoked speculation of an imminent move away from ultra-loose policy. In the days since Ueda's remarks just over a week ago about an early move from negative rates, the yen has dropped 1.3% and taken losses for 2023 to more than 11%. Sterling was last trading at $1.2372, down 0.08% on the day. British inflation data is due on Wednesday and is likely to move the pound ahead of the BoE decision. Many analysts expect that stark divergences in economic growth and in yields will keep the dollar mostly propped up, particularly against the euro. Sterling has slid nearly 6% against the dollar since mid-July, while the euro has dropped more than 5% as the UK labour market and economy and the euro zone economy slowed. The European Central Bank raised interest rates to 4% last week but said this hike could be its last. Meanwhile, oil prices are trading at around $94 and are adding a layer of complication to central banks' growth-inflation dilemmas. Oil is also on track for its biggest quarterly increase since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2022.